The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has urged farmers in Kano, Niger, Rivers and 12 other states of the federation, to delay planting activities due to early rainfall, warning that the onset of the main rainy season has not yet begun and that premature cultivation could hurt crop yields.
Unveiling the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) in Abuja recently, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, said scattered rains in parts of the country, including Lagos and Rivers states, should not be interpreted as the start of the rainy season.
“The early showers we have seen are not sustained rainfall,” Keyamo said, advising those engaged in rain-fed agriculture to consult NiMet’s official onset dates before planting.
According to the SCP, early rainfall onset is projected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba states. However, Borno State is expected to experience a delayed onset of rains.
The forecast shows varied rainfall patterns across the country in 2026. While most regions are expected to receive normal annual rainfall, above-normal totals are likeliest in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, and Akwa Ibom states, and the Federal Capital Territory. Parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun states are predicted to see below-normal rainfall.
Rainfall cessation, the end of the rainy season, is also expected to vary: parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger states may see an early end to rains, while Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna states could experience delayed cessation.
The SCP further forecast severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun states during March–May and dry periods of up to 21 days in several northern and central states during June–August. A pronounced “Little Dry Season” is expected from late July, particularly over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo states.
NiMet’s advisory comes amid ongoing concerns that inconsistent and early rains, sometimes described as “pseudo-rains”, could mislead farmers into planting too soon, leading to crop stress if dry conditions return.
The Federal Government highlighted that the SCP is meant to provide early warning and actionable climate information to support sustainable agricultural planning, disaster risk reduction and national development.
